Exhaustion

Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability.

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association.TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures.TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.

Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk.

The report “Interactive Effects of High Temperature and Air Pollution in Europe” was prepared as a milestone by researchers in the EU Project EXHAUSTION*. This report summarises the evidence on the interactive effects of high temperature and various air pollutants on heart- and lung-related deaths and diseases (cardiopulmonary (CPD) mortality and morbidity) across Europe. The study was conducted at the city, small-area (e.g. suburban areas or municipalities), and individual level. The findings highlight the urgency in improving air quality across Europe, and alert stakeholders and policymakers that climate change adaptation measures need to be also taken into account to protect vulnerable subgroups and thereby increase European resilience towards climate change.

European air quality has worsened in recent decades as a consequence of increased anthropogenic emissions, in particular from the power generation sector. It is mainly associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, along with morbidity and even mortality. The mitigation scenario (REN80-P2050) demonstrates that the effects of a mitigation policy of increasing the ratio of renewable sources in the energy mix could lead to a decrease of over 60 000 (95 % CI 48 500–70 900) annual PD for the year 2050 (a decrease of −4 % in comparison with the no-mitigation scenario FUT-P2050). Despite the uncertainties inherent in future estimations, this contribution reveals the need for governments and public entities to take action and choose air pollution mitigation policies.

We investigate the novel use of summer temperature-mortality associations established by these models for monitoring heat-related deaths in regions in England in near real time. For four summers in the period 2011–2020, we find that coupling these associations with observed daily mean temperatures results in England-wide heatwave mortality estimates that are consistent with the excess deaths estimated by UK Health Security Agency. However, our results for 2013, 2018 and 2020 highlight that the lagged effects of heat and characteristics of individual summers contribute to disagreement between the two methods.

Previous studies have reported a decrease in air pollution levels following the enforcement of lockdown measures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these investigations were mostly based on simple pre-post comparisons using past years as a reference and did not assess the role of different policy interventions. This study contributes to knowledge by quantifying the association between specific lockdown measures and the decrease in NO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10 levels across 47 European cities.

The report “Effects of air Temperature on Cardiopulmonary Mortality and Morbidity in Europe” was prepared as a milestone of the EU Project EXHAUSTION. It summarizes the evidence on the effects of different levels and changes in ambient air temperature on cardiopulmonary (CPD) mortality and morbidity across Europe and puts a spotlight on the vulnerable and susceptible population. It can help stakeholders and policymakers to plan adaptation measures to protect the vulnerable and susceptible population and increase European resilience towards climate change and extreme weather events.